Can Trump still get the nomination?

Donald Trump speaking with the media at a hangar at Mesa Gateway Airport in Mesa, Arizona. / Gage Skidmore
Donald Trump speaking with the media at a hangar at Mesa Gateway Airport in Mesa, Arizona. / Gage Skidmore

Cruz was the big winner in Wisconsin, having gotten 48.2% of the vote and 36 delegates. In his victory speech he pointed out how proud he was of the past victories he had and stated how eighteen delegates support his campaign while only one is supporting Trump. He also said it was a bad night for Clinton, who lost Wisconsin to Bernie Sanders. This was clearly a big win for the Cruz campaign as he is quickly catching up with the amount of delegates Donald Trump has. Trump still leads by having 743 delegates compared to Cruz’s 517. Cruz finished his speech off by saying: “Hillary, get ready, here we come.”

Having lost in Wisconsin, the Trump campaign will have to start thinking about the possibility that he might not get the 1237 delegates he needs to get the Republican nomination and that he might be challenged at the convention in Cleveland in July.  “The sheer magnitude of the margin of Trump’s humiliating loss shows that his trail of outrageous comments is finally catching up with him,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican political consultant and former spokesman for Mitt Romney. Some say he’s not acting politically enough and that his attacks on Cruz’s wife really hurt him much more than it hurt them.

Many that oppose Trump hope he does not get the amount of delegates he needs and are relying on a convention in July to change the course of these elections. A GOP contested convention occurs when no candidate has the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination. Of course, there are rules in this process, but a special convention rules panel may set additional national rules days before the convention, potentially making or breaking the presidential aspirations of candidates who fall short. Delegates could choose to come up with a “compromise candidate”, someone who could be neither Cruz or Kasich. This is why many Republican elites are not worried about Donald Trump because they don’t think he’ll be able to secure the number of delegates he needs in order to get the nomination. They think that once he gets to the convention, he will have a lot of trouble winning over delegates to vote for him.

However, this process would not come without its risks. The US is supposed to be a democracy, that means that the public is supposed to choose the nominee for their party. Not high ranking people. Just normal citizens. A new Vox/Morning Consult poll finds that 55 percent of self-identified Republican voters respond negatively to the idea that the candidate in first place after the primaries could lose the nomination at the convention. Trump himself said that were he not to get the nomination at the convention, despite him leading over the other Republican candidates, there would be riots. “I think bad things would happen, I really do. I believe that. I wouldn’t lead it but I think bad things would happen,” he said.

Trump, Cruz, and Kasich might not be the only ones eligible for the nomination, though. Many in the GOP can’t imagine having either Trump or Cruz as the nominee for their party, and think it’s practically impossible for Kasich to even stand a chance. Instead, they believe someone like Paul Ryan, current speaker of the House of Representatives, would be a better and safer bet. Charles Koch, a major investor in the Republican Party, has voiced his support for the idea of Ryan challenging the other candidates at the convention and possibly gaining the nomination himself.

However, people close to Ryan have tried to stop these rumors by telling the public that Ryan has no intention of running for president and that it could easily get ugly at the convention if Ryan were to show up. One close buying keflex source said: “He doesn’t want the nomination. And can you imagine the backlash from the Trump forces if someone who didn’t run for president wins the nomination? It would be complete chaos.” Ryan himself said on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show that “If you want to be president, you should go run for president, and that’s just the way I see it.” Despite their reluctance to acknowledge any interest on Ryan’s behalf for the presidency, if we look back to the not-so-distant past, we can see that things might change. Last Fall, when he was asked if he wanted the job as speaker, he also acted as if he was not interested at all and denied wanting the job. We all know how that turned out. What makes these claims even less trustworthy is the fact that, if he was really not interested in getting the nomination, he would have just said something along the lines of If I am chosen as the nominee, I will not accept it. This is something he has yet to say. Time will tell how these rumors play out.

Photograph: Paul Ryan / CC
Photograph: Paul Ryan / CC

After having lost Wisconsin, the Trump campaign decided to shift their focus to New York and held a rally there Wednesday. He started off by pointing out how America does not win anymore and how other countries take advantage of the US and that this has to stop. He had an interesting way of illustrating his views that night. He told a story, which he had also previously told at a rally in Iowa in January, that was supposed to make people think about those coming into the US, especially Syrian refugees. Trump has previously expressed his skepticism towards accepting refugees and said it wasn’t such a great idea. He made his point more than clear with the story he told. The story was about this sweet, tender woman who rescued a half frozen snake. She took him home with her and took good care of him until he was better.

However, instead of thanking the sweet woman for all she had done for him, the snake gave her a “vicious bite.” When the woman asked why the snake had bitten her after she helped save his life, he replied by stating that she should have known better as he is a snake, and snakes are known to be dangerous animals. After telling the story, Trump emphasized that the US has to get tough, vigilant, smart, and that “we have to know that there are all sorts of traps out there.” He also made the point that being politically correct all the time is not the way to go. He said that the US is not going to be a scapegoat or stupid anymore and that they will not be ripped off again. The crowd was definitely feeling his message and it shows in the poll numbers.

He is currently leading big in New York, where 95 delegates are at stake. He’s averaging at around 53% with Kasich in second place at 22% and Cruz at around 18.6%. Hillary Clinton is also looking to finish the month on a better note after losing six of the last seven states to Mr. Sanders. However, she has less to worry about than Trump, as she has a lead of more than 700 pledged delegates. Donald Trump will have to try and ignore the drama going on around him and ignore the rumors about what could happen at a convention and instead focus on the upcoming crucial primaries to try and secure the nomination for himself. Cruz will have to try and keep up his momentum if he wants to surpass Trump’s delegate count. And Kasich, well, we’ll see what he decides to do.

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Gabriela Bernal 24 Articles
Gabriela Bernal is interested in politics, international relations, and terrorism. She is pursuing a degree in political science and plans on pursuing her postgraduate studies in the U.K. She likes to write, read, play tennis, travel, and learn new languages.

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